Courtesy of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors
2013 ANNUAL & 4TH QUARTER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT
Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange Counties, New York
The Lower Hudson region’s real estate market continued its strong recovery of the past two years with double digit increases in sales volumes, and some increases in prices as well, in the four-county area served by the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, a subsidiary of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. MLS Member Realtors working in Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange counties reported a grand total of 13,781 closed residential sales in those counties, a 20% increase over 2012’s performance which itself was a robust bounce-back from the bottom of the real estate recession in 2008 and 2009.
The recent numbers were the highest posted with the MLS since 2007. On a percentage basis, Orange County led the way with a 23% increase in sales over the full year 2012, followed by Westchester (21%), Putnam (17%), and Rockland (14%). Broken down by quarters, the first quarter of 2013 was the slowest, the second and third quarters were the most vigorous, and the fourth quarter eased back again although, with a 16% increase over the fourth quarter of 2012, it was still a fine finish and bodes well for 2014 The accelerating sales volumes over the past two years have dented the region’s inventory of properties for sale. There was a total of 8,942 residential units (single-family houses, condominiums, cooperatives, and in Westchester, 2-4 family residences) available at the close of 2013, a 7.1% decrease from 2012, which itself posted a decrease from 2011.
The region is emerging from a period when supply was tight because potential sellers were concerned about economic conditions and were reluctant to list their properties because of that. Some of that reticence to list still exists among potential sellers who are wary of lingering high unemployment as well as uncertain federal legislative and regulatory enactments that might negatively affect real estate as well as the economy as a whole. However, it now appears that the downward direction of inventory results more from classic supply and demand – sales outpacing new supply – than from consumer nervousness about the real estate market per se.
But the inventory is not yet so tight as to be a market killer, nor has it exerted undue pressure on price levels anywhere in the region. Prospective sellers who may have been avoiding the market until it meets their expectations for higher prices, may find themselves waiting longer still. Year to year median sale prices of single family houses have increased just a few percent, and have actually decreased some more in Orange County.
The largest price increase occurred in Westchester County where the median sale price1 of a single family house increased by 3.9%, from $587,000 in 2012 to $610,000 in 2013. The mean1 or average price of $812,108 increased only 1.4%, suggesting that there was not much change in the high end market. For example, for the fourth quarter of 2013, houses that sold for $1 million or more constituted about 17% of total house sales; in 2012 that ratio was 18%. In other sectors, Westchester condos also posted a 3.9% increase in median price, to $343,000. Cooperatives – Westchester’s most affordable housing type, posted a median of $150,000, a mere 1.0% increase from 2012.
Various indices published by the National Association of Realtors and other organizations suggest that some amount of market slowdown occurred in the closing months of 2013, and that it will be followed by moderate growth in 2014. The data presented in this MLS report support that observation. The external factors sustaining the recovery here include steady and affordable mortgage interest rates. Although rates on 30-year conventional loans approached 5% in mid-year, they have since leveled off at around 4.6% and that is a low rate by any historic standard. While increases are expected in 2014 they are not expected to be sharp.
Also working in favor of a strong real estate market is the continuing decrease in the unemployment rate. In Westchester, the most populous county in the MLS region, the year end rate was down to 5.5% from 6.8% a year ago. Putnam was at 5.0%, Rockland at 5.3%, and Orange at 6.3% -- all of them under 2012 levels by more than one full percentage point. Lower unemployment gives consumers the sense of economic confidence they need to venture into the housing market. So does a good showing in the equity markets, e.g., a Dow Jones index that set records all year long.
The Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (HGMLS) is a subsidiary of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. (HGAR). The MLS’s principal service territory consists of Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange Counties. It also provides services to Realtors operating in Bronx, Dutchess, Sullivan and Ulster Counties. The reported transactions do not include all real estate sales in the area or all sales assisted by the participating offices but they are fairly reflective of general market conditions. HGMLS does not provide data on sub-county geographic areas. Persons desiring sub-county data are invited to contact participating real estate offices in the desired areas. Any text or data from this report may be reprinted with attribution to Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as the source. Prior reports dating back to 1981 are available on the Realtor Association’s website, www.hgar.com; click on Market Statistics. A membership directory searchable by municipality is also available on that
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